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Challenge

(Questions 17-18)

S&P Problems

STANDARD SPOOR'S

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17. Using Probability Distributions Suppose the returns on large-company stocks are normally distributed. Based on the historical record, use the cumulative normal probability table (rounded to the nearest table value) in the appendix of the text to determine the probability that in any given year you will lose money by investing in common stock.

18. Using Probability Distributions Suppose the returns on long-term corporate bonds and T-bills are normally distributed. Based on the historical record, use the cumulative normal probability table (rounded to the nearest table value) in the appendix of the text to answer the following questions:

a. What is the probability that in any given year, the return on long-term corporate bonds will be greater than 10 percent? Less than 0 percent?

b. What is the probability that in any given year, the return on T-bills will be greater than 10 percent? Less than 0 percent?

c. In 1979, the return on long-term corporate bonds was -4.18 percent. How likely is it that this low of a return will recur at some point in the future? T-bills had a return of 10.32 percent in this same year. How likely is it that this high of a return on T-bills will recur at some point in the future?

Calculating Yields Download the historical stock prices for Duke Energy (DUK) under the "Mthly. Adj. Prices" link. Find the closing stock price for the beginning and end of the prior two years. Now use the annual financial statements to find the dividend for each of these years. What was the capital gains yield and dividend yield for Duke Energy stock for each of these years? Now calculate the capital gains yield and dividend for Tommy Hilfiger (TOM). How do the returns for these two companies compare?

Calculating Average Returns Download the Monthly Adjusted Prices for Microsoft (MSFT). What is the return on the stock over the past 12 months? Now use the 1 Month Total Return and calculate the average monthly return. Is this one-twelfth of the annual return you calculated? Why or why not? What is the monthly standard deviation of Microsoft's stock over the past year?

12.1 Market Risk Premium You want to find the current market risk premium. Go to money.cnn.com, follow the "Bonds & Rates" link, and the "Latest Rates" link. What is the shortest maturity interest rate shown? What is the interest rate for this maturity? Using the large-company stock return in Table 12.3, what is the current market risk premium? What assumption are you making when calculating the risk premium?

12.2 Historical Interest Rates Go the St. Louis Federal Reserve web site at www.stls.frb.org and follow the "FRED®/Data" link and the "Interest Rates" link. You will find a list of links for different historical interest rates. Follow the "10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate" link and you will find the monthly 10-year Treasury note interest rates. Calculate the average annual 10-year Treasury interest rate for 1999 and 2000. Compare this number to the long-term government bond returns and the U.S. Treasury bill returns found in Table 12.1. How does the 10-year Treasury interest rate compare to these numbers? Do you expect this relationship to always hold? Why or why not?

Ross et al.: Fundamentals of Corporate Finance, Sixth Edition, Alternate Edition

V. Risk and Return

12. Some Lessons from Capital Market History

© The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2002

CHAPTER 12 Some Lessons from Capital Market History

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